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FREE TRADING TOOL · NO ACCOUNT NEEDED

A win rate is only
half the picture.

Find your trading expectancy.
Include the wins, the losses and the costs.

Your numbers

0%100%
Full round-trip fees and slippage.
For the expected total below.

Use gross wins and losses before costs. Enter losses as positive amounts. This model assumes each trade is a win or a loss, with no breakeven trades.

Try a scenario

Expected value per trade

Positive expectancy
+$95.00

An average, not a promise for your next trade.

Break-even win rate34.17%Including your costs
Average reward : risk2.00 : 1Before costs
Expected total · 100 trades+$9,500.00Assumes the same inputs throughout
Expectancy / average loss+0.475RR uses your average loss as a baseline

What if your win rate changes?

USD / trade
Expectancy by win rateExpected value per trade across win rates from zero to one hundred percent.
Your current win rateDashed line = break-even

THE MATH, WITHOUT THE GUESSWORK

How trading expectancy works

(Win rate × average win)
− (Loss rate × average loss)
− average costs per trade

(50% × $400) − (50% × $200) − $5 = $95 per trade.

A positive expectancy means the inputs produce a positive mathematical average. Actual results can vary widely: outcomes cluster, losses can streak, and your win rate, execution and trade sizes can change. This is a scenario calculation, not a forecast or investment advice.

What if I already deducted fees?

Set costs per trade to zero if your average wins and losses already include all fees and slippage. Otherwise, you would count those costs twice.

Does a high win rate mean a profitable strategy?

No. At a 60% win rate, a $100 average win and $200 average loss produce −$20 per trade before costs. Both the size of wins and losses and their frequency matter.

What does the expected total mean?

It is expectancy multiplied by the number of trades. It assumes unchanged averages and costs. It does not predict the order of outcomes, drawdown, the probability of profit or the risk of ruin, and it does not include compounding.

FROM ASSUMPTIONS TO YOUR OWN HISTORY

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